Letter to the Editor – Yountville should rethink Commons market research
Dear Editor – This letter states my thoughts regarding next steps on the Yountville Commons’ market research project. Per the town manager, action on this matter is tentatively scheduled for the May 5 Town Council meeting. I will also send this letter to [email protected] prior to next week’s meeting, but wanted to make it available in advance to see if others share my concerns. Thanks.
— Jill Turner
TO: The Yountville Town Council, Town Manager and Other Yountville Commons Stakeholders
SUBJECT: Yountville Commons Consumer Research: Comments & Next Steps
Please see these comments below regarding next steps on market research for the Yountville Commons (YVC) project, which all parties seem to agree is a vital next step. These comments are time-sensitive: action on this matter is expected at the May 5 Town Council meeting.
BACKGROUND
I attended the April 7 Town Council meeting and stayed for the next portion of the meeting after many attendees had left. Viewing again the video portion of the meeting – at approximately 2 hours 21 minutes – I would like to share comments before any decisions are taken, tentatively on May 5. These pertain to the “Directions to Town Staff” regarding next steps on market research.
Many remarks below are reprised from and build on concerns expressed in my letter for Public Comment on March 16 for the March 17 meeting, which unfortunately did not make it into the Public Comment documents, although it was submitted on time. Those comments addressed my concern about Resolution 26-4404, which appears to be on hold. (FYI, this resolution authorized “the Town Manager to execute an agreement for as-needed on-call professional services with BAE Urban Economics, Inc. in the maximum amount of $250,000 for a three-year period with no obligation for the town to award a work order and encumber funds within the term of the contract.”)
For reference, here are the Town Manager’s comments from the April 7 Town Council Meeting, which I have tried to transcribe accurately (my apologies if the punctuation is incorrect):
As he stated, “… May 5, I think, is probably the meeting. I can provide options to you all. We already have the BAE Staff Report, so I think I can just bring that back on, if there’s any questions of the scope that was defined. I think there was options there for level of market research…”
RECOMMENDATIONS & NEXT STEPS
With these intentions and timing in mind, here are my recommendations and next steps:
1. Do not proceed with or “bring back on” the recommendations of the BAE Staff Report of March 17 or the BAE Economics’ Yountville Commons Market Research Options of March 11. On judgment, these are not the best ways to obtain the affordable/workforce housing information on Yountville that so many taxpayers have called for.
2. Instead, request bids from outside, well-regarded market research companies with known expertise in consumer research (there are many in the Bay Area and beyond). More specifically:
- Exclude existing vendors, who may not be unbiased.
- Define objectives and deliverables of the project – ideally in conjunction with and input from Yountville’s leading employers and local residents with marketing expertise.
- Obtain RFQs (perhaps eight) and RFPs (perhaps three or four) from each consumer research supplier for the Town Council’s and Staff’s review and decision, then choose the bid deemed to best match the pre-defined objectives and deliverables.
- Then proceed as indicated, guided by the chosen company’s experience and recommendations on how best to achieve the objectives of obtaining quantitative data on Yountville workers and their housing preferences.
3. Involve Yountville’s key employers (including the Veterans Home) in these discussions, since it is Yountville’s workers whom the YVC project intends to house.
DISCUSSION
1. A Reminder of the Research Objective: Beginning in the February 17 Town Council meeting and other meetings I attended since then, there has been one consistent goal related to this project voiced repeatedly by attendees – Talk to the customer. More specifically, talk to the Yountville workers who are the target market of the YVC project and find out what THEY want. This is a quantitative objective, not a qualitative goal; this means get input and hard data from MANY people, not just a few. (Per AI, quantitative data is “objective, quantifiable, and verifiable information, such as numerical figures, facts, and statistics obtained from direct measurement or reliable sources…”).
2. Concerns about Proceeding with BAE on This New Research Project: First, looking at the BAE website, the company appears to have expertise and strengths in many areas. However, consumer market research is NOT one of them. (Analyzing research data after it is available is not the same as designing and fielding consumer research from scratch.)
Second, I think it is unwise to provide additional funds to BAE, a company that, understandably, may have a bias or vested interest in the outcome, based on the projects and analyses that they have already done for the town.
Third, in the March 11 memo, BAE expressed concerns that “…Ultimately, there is no guarantee that any of these methods would yield statistically reliable representation of the Yountville workforce…” While “no guarantee” is off-putting in advance of considerable spending and unknown results (but understandable from BAE as they propose options), I firmly believe that the goal of this research SHOULD be data that is statistically reliable. According to the survey sample size calculator on Survey Planet, with a survey population of, say, 3,000 Yountville workers and a 95% confidence level (“the industry standard”) and a margin of error of 5% (“typically between 4% and 8%”), the sample size for statistical reliability is 341 responses. And of course, even more responses are better. (Keep in mind that The Estate Yountville alone acquired quantitative results from 172 of its own employees, their “off-season” staff, in a confidential, bilingual [English & Spanish] survey that was developed and fielded in-house.)
Finally, while consumer research will certainly have a price, it must be considered in the context of the $91 million YVC project: let’s not be penny-wise and pound-foolish.
3. Concerns That Appear to Put the Town Manager Solely in Charge of the Research Project – and Exclusively with BAE. The BAE memo of March 11 regarding its research options states: “…The budget amounts represent cost estimates for BAE’s work that would be refined and finalized in collaboration with the Town Manager as specific task orders are defined under the Town’s on-call contract with BAE…” (bold is mine). I have three problems with this approach. First, as mentioned, I do not believe that BAE is the right company for this consumer research project. Second, it alarms me that Town Manager Brad Raulston (whom I do not know, so no offense is meant!) stated in the Wall Street Journal article of March 27, 2026, that “It’s hard for me to understand their concerns,” regarding those who “vented against the (YVC) plan.” This suggests a lack of empathy or comprehension regarding taxpayers’ issues, or even willful ignorance. Third, the “on-call contract with BAE” implies open-ended and additional spending with a company that does not appear to have the experience to develop and field this kind of research project. Thus, putting the Town Manager (who says he does not understand concerns about the YVC project) in charge of task orders via an on-call contract with BAE (a company with expertise other than consumer research) seems like a really bad combination — namely, a person who doesn’t get the problem will manage a company without the expertise to solve it. This pairing is unlikely to yield the information taxpayers are clamoring for.
4. Concerns about BAE’s Recommendations to Date: As an aside, I have been in marketing, advertising, and public relations for my entire career. It is with that background that I provide the following comments. Here are the three (four) market research methods suggested by BAE in the “Yountville Town Council Staff Report” and related attachments from Mr. Raulston and BAE’s Mr. Kowta, dated March 17, 2026, which are followed by my comments on each:
a. “Additional 3rd Party Data Collection:” A substantial amount of research analysis has already been completed by BAE for the February 17 Town Council meeting. While it may have been better than nothing, their “Yountville Town Commons Pro-Forma Financial Analysis” dated February 13, 2026, of the American Community Survey (ACS) research has some inherent flaws – not BAE’s fault, however. Nevertheless, the data analyzed is from 2020-2024 and has a HUGE margin of error: of the total stated number of Yountville workers of 3,095, the margin of error is ±1,211. (FYI, the standard margin of error on most professional research is 3-5%, say some sources, or 4-8%, says another – not 39%!)
In addition, while its effects on the ACS research are probably unknown and unknowable, remember that the COVID-19 outbreak was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) from March 2020 until May 2023. Perhaps the pandemic had no impact on the research, or maybe it did – but in any case, the pandemic spanned about 2/3 of the ACS survey period.
Furthermore, while other similar projects (such as Burbank Housing mentioned) may have some modest learnings for the YVC project, I think all future research and analysis efforts should focus on Yountville itself, a unique community and workforce situation (as really, they all are). I would not spend additional time and money trying to draw conclusions for Yountville based on other geographic areas. Why go elsewhere? Why not just focus on getting information from Yountville? As was done by The Estate Yountville, why not ask the employees/workers themselves what they want in their housing situation? Just go to the source of the information!
(Nevertheless, as previously stated in my letter to Town Council March 2, 2026, I continue to think Napa Valley College’s River Trail Village project is noteworthy and a cautionary tale, where enthusiasm for its affordable housing significantly overpromised and underdelivered, at least initially and before substantial program adjustments).
2. “Employee Focus Group:” Focus groups can be very valuable tool for qualitative research: they are designed for small groups, usually 6-8 people, who share their subjective comments (that is, their opinions and sentiments) on a topic. However, as BAE proposes, two or three focus groups would elicit input only from about 12-24 people from about 3,000 Yountville workers (less than 1% — just 0.4-0.8%!). This is hardly what town residents recommended at the February 17 meeting and since: namely, to obtain input and hard data from MANY Yountville workers who are the target market of the YVC project.
3/4. “Online Employee Survey” & “In-Person Employee Survey:” As mentioned, many taxpayers in meetings I have attended have reiterated the absolute need for quantitative data on the target market, as provided by market research such as a survey. There are about 3,000 in Yountville’s potential pool of consumers (i.e., persons who might live in affordable/workforce housing), and ideally employers could help encourage survey completion among the employees that they, the employers themselves, are hoping to help and house. Yes, there may be issues to address about privacy, language issues (English/Spanish), the degree and process of employer involvement, survey method (online, in-person, mail, etc.) et al. However, these are not insurmountable, especially for seasoned consumer research companies, who deal with such issues every day.
Furthermore, on judgment, these workers would NOT be that difficult to reach. Why? Because Yountville employers know exactly who these workers are (their employees!), and most employers are eager to implement affordable/workforce housing in Yountville – as long as it is done the right way.
In summary, Yountville should NOT proceed with BAE on the upcoming consumer research project. Instead, with input from key employers, the town should seek out companies with proven expertise to design and field consumer market research.
Thank you for your time and consideration of these issues, which are important to many of us in Yountville.
Jill Turner
Yountville
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